This week, Advantage has been taking a look at the Office For National Statistics’ latest construction figures.
According to the ONS, monthly construction output grew by a record 23.5% in June 2020, substantially higher than the previous record monthly growth of 7.6% in May 2020.
Despite this strong monthly growth, construction output in June 2020 remains comparatively low at 24.8%, below the February 2020 level, which was before the full impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.
Looking slightly further ahead, Construction Europe Magazine (among others) highlighted July’s figures, which appear to point to a UK construction recovery.
They say: Construction activity for the top UK contractors returned to pre-coronavirus levels during July, according to industry analyst Barbour ABI.
The company released its monthly table on 11th August, showing the 50 leading contractors were awarded a total of 165 projects, with a combined value of over £3.9 billion.
This monthly figure compares favourably with the monthly average in 2019 of £3.2 billion, and equals the monthly average between January and March this year.
Tom Hall, chief economist at Barbour ABI & AMA Research, said that, while awards for the leading UK contractors had recovered strongly in July, it was worth noting that:
“There was likely to be a bow wave of projects now being green-lighted after lockdown and furlough.”
He added that:
“Given the uncertainty over the recovery in the wider economy, the future planning pipeline is also currently uncertain.”
Advantage’s View:
Looking at the ONS and Barbour ABI’s figures, we can, of course, see a much more positive picture emerging than we were seeing in spring. However, as highlighted by Tom Hall, the early signs of a recovery for the construction industry are accompanied by greater uncertainty for the economy as a whole.
At present, construction is said to be one of the key sectors helping to drive the UK’s economic recovery, and as one of the first sectors to re-open, it appears to be returning to pre-Covid-19 levels faster than other parts of the economy.
Overall, we anticipate that projections for growth in UK construction output will remain conservative until other sectors begin to stabilise.
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